The above chart shows a performance comparison between Obama's poll numbers since September 1 to October 24, in blue, against the performance of the Dow Jones for the same time period.
Rove stated:
But we have to be a little bit careful here, because markets try and predict the future. And what they may be doing here, this volatility may be people’s concerns about what would happen if Barack Obama, who has a lead in the polls and has been deemed by the media to be the likely next president of the United States, what would happen to their economy and their portfolios if he were to become president?
Rove appears to be drawing the conclusion that the Dow Jones' volatility in the last few weeks is correlated to the Obama's rising poll numbers, shown above in my chart. I doubt Rove has ever done any trading, himself. In fact, the opposite of his statement is true. Obama has risen in the polls because of the Dow volatility.
The rapid rises and falls of the Dow can be attributed to the de-leveraging actions of companies all over the world who have bills to pay and less capital to pay them with as a result of the toxic debt accumulated from over-reaching in the bond and sureties markets.
Since those bills are due, the companies must sell off assets in order to free capital for continued operations. This so-called de-leveraing effort results in lots of stock sell-offs, driving the price down, followed by investors gobbling up the deals, driving the price back, followed by profit-taking sell-offs and even more stocks being dumped on the market. Back and forth.
The result is the volatility we see every day on the Dow and other indices around the world. People watching this get nervous, of course, and look at the presidential candidates for assurance one or the other can handle this upon taking office. That person, according to recent polls, is Barack Obama. Rove is shown below spouting his nonsense while investors and intelligent voters merely smile at the ignorance.
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