Surges and timetables

President Obama gave a speech before a graduating class of West Point students last night in which he outlined his plan to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in an effort to bolster our forces there and turn around months of losses.

One key aspect of his plan is a drawdown from the area by 2011, with the goal of having provided sufficient time for the Afghan government to step up to its own defense.  The usual shrill cries about timetables is already being heard from the right, with the usual people claiming that having a timetable just gives the “enemy” time to wait us out before resurging after we leave.

I find this to be a rather simplistic analysis of what’s happening there or in any war.  First of all, what does “waiting it out” entail?  They lay in provisions and just take an 18 month break?  They hole up in caves, stockpile some books and magazines, and just take it easy for the next year or so?

The alternatives would be to try and stockpile weapons and increase training and recruitment, but then they are trying to do that all the time anyway.  Trying to increase that effort over the next year will just result in increased attention from all the additional US troops humming around the country.

Laying low means they are handing control of the country over to the US and Afghan governments, providing valuable time for the far superior US forces to bolster the country’s internal defenses and political structure.

Thus, in all actuality, the Taliban will try to continue doing what they have been doing.  There won’t be any “laying low”.  There won’t be any regrouping.  There will just be a hell of a lot more US soldiers with guns, tanks, and helicopters crawling the caves and deserts of that place.  The Taliban’s recruiting might get them a few hundred reinforcements here and there.  The US can drop 30K on them in a few weeks.

The timetable isn’t providing the Taliban with anything at all except notice that we have clear cut goals in mind, aren’t going to dick around any longer like we did under “The Decider” and are there to get a job done and get out.  Further still, it sends the same message to the Afghan natives who are wondering how long this occupation will last.  They know they have a limited time to get their act together and decide what they want for their country as we won’t always be there to protect them.